Looking for feeback on my "system"

[FTW!]

I don't know where to begin, so I'll just type whatever comes to mind. FYI, I am only talking about NFL.

Basically, I am new to betting sports, and I go through a bookie (my friend takes bets), so all of my lines for ATS and O/U is -110. I use sportsbook for all of the trend information. I have found success (especially on O/U's) betting against the public. This past week I went 7-3, sweeping the 4:00 o'clock games. I figure if I put my money where Vegas is putting it, I will win more than I lose, which I believe is the whole point to betting in the first place. We all know Vegas is not losing money to gamblers. I'm not looking to become a millionaire, but will I be a profitable bettor using this system?

For the most part, I believe the same to be true for ATS bets, except I know the vig plays more of a role, but I don't know when I should side with the public based on the vig. When should I be siding with the public? How do I know when Vegas is juicing a side to induce bets without moving the line? Does this even happen?

For my ATS bets, I have been basing my plays on information provided by statfox, and using their Profitable Angles and Power Trends and Lines.

Also, when is the best time to bet? Should I place them when the lines open, or wait until the day of? I have been calling my 1:00 games in at 12:30. lol


Looking for any kind of feedback, input, opinions, etc. Thanks.

 

[IrishTim]

A lot of info to cover, and I'm pretty busy, so I'll keep it short for now. Firstly, I don't know how much I trust the public %s you can find out there for free (not sure if I even trust the accuracy of the the pay line services one).

For the most part, any advantage in NFL lines has been pounded out by the sharps by Tuesday so if you're looking for value, you have a better chance at finding it the earlier you place the bets.

The best way to beat a local is to play the slow moving numbers. Look at a bunch of different sportsbooks (pinnacle and matchbook are best). If they have some game at -4.5 and your local has it -3.5, take the dog +4.5. You'll be a long term winner if your beating the market (matchbook, pinnacle, Greek, Bookmaker, etc.) by a full point.

 

[jacksonjohn]

A lot of info to cover, and I'm pretty busy, so I'll keep it short for now. Firstly, I don't know how much I trust the public %s you can find out there for free (not sure if I even trust the accuracy of the the pay line services one).

For the most part, any advantage in NFL lines has been pounded out by the sharps by Tuesday so if you're looking for value, you have a better chance at finding it the earlier you place the bets.

The best way to beat a local is to play the slow moving numbers. Look at a bunch of different sportsbooks (pinnacle and matchbook are best). If they have some game at -4.5 and your local has it -3.5, take the dog +4.5. You'll be a long term winner if your beating the market (matchbook, pinnacle, Greek, Bookmaker, etc.) by a full point.

If the local is slow moving and you respect the larger books, i.e. Matchbook, wouldn't the correct play be to lay the 3.5 with your local? If you liked the dog, why not wait to see if the upward trend continues? BTW, I really enjoy reading your posts in pops thread and elsewhere.

 

[IrishTim]

If the local is slow moving and you respect the larger books, i.e. Matchbook, wouldn't the correct play be to lay the 3.5 with your local? If you liked the dog, why not wait to see if the upward trend continues? BTW, I really enjoy reading your posts in pops thread and elsewhere.

Absolutely correct. Told you I was rushing :toast: Yes, I made a mistake in the previous post. I'll use teams to try to avoid making another error.

Say you have a game like tonight where the Colts are undoubtedly going to be a huge public play at -3. Most local bookies have squares who will look at this line and jump all over it. In fact, one bookie I know told me he had 25 bets on the Colts -3.5 (-115) and only 2 on the Jaguars. So in order to prevent such one-sided action, you might some locals move it up to 4.

But the professional books like Bookmaker and Pinnacle will stay strong at 3 because that's where they have the fair line at and they know if they move it to 4, they'll get crushed by all the sharps and syndicates eating up those inflated numbers.

So in this case, when your local has the Colts -4.5 and the big-time offshore books have them -3, the right play is Jags +4.5. In theory, the average or median closing line at the big off shore books is the "fair-line". The more volume, the closer the closing # is to a 50-50 proposition. So if you can take a team +4.5 when the fair line is 3, you're getting a 1.5 point advantage (some 8%) over the market. That just turned your average 50% bet into a 58% bet, which will make you a long term winner.

One thing to keep in mind though is that most locals have been around and know what you're doing, so you have to ease them in slowly.

When I first started out, my plan was just to play as many rogue numbers as I could find and it worked out decently well. I split up my relatively small bankroll at the time and deposited into about 6 different books and I would like for discrepancies. Sometimes you'll find a book asleep at the wheel for an obscure NCAAF first half total when all the books have it at 24.5 and you'll see someone hanging a 23.5. Hit the over 23.5 and you'll have a significant advantage over the market.

Whenever I'm on a bad streak, I return to this idea until I get some things worked out.

 

[scan]

Absolutely correct. Told you I was rushing :toast: Yes, I made a mistake in the previous post. I'll use teams to try to avoid making another error.

Say you have a game like tonight where the Colts are undoubtedly going to be a huge public play at -3. Most local bookies have squares who will look at this line and jump all over it. In fact, one bookie I know told me he had 25 bets on the Colts -3.5 (-115) and only 2 on the Jaguars. So in order to prevent such one-sided action, you might some locals move it up to 4.

But the professional books like Bookmaker and Pinnacle will stay strong at 3 because that's where they have the fair line at and they know if they move it to 4, they'll get crushed by all the sharps and syndicates eating up those inflated numbers.

So in this case, when your local has the Colts -4.5 and the big-time offshore books have them -3, the right play is Jags +4.5. In theory, the average or median closing line at the big off shore books is the "fair-line". The more volume, the closer the closing # is to a 50-50 proposition. So if you can take a team +4.5 when the fair line is 3, you're getting a 1.5 point advantage (some 8%) over the market. That just turned your average 50% bet into a 58% bet, which will make you a long term winner.

One thing to keep in mind though is that most locals have been around and know what you're doing, so you have to ease them in slowly.

When I first started out, my plan was just to play as many rogue numbers as I could find and it worked out decently well. I split up my relatively small bankroll at the time and deposited into about 6 different books and I would like for discrepancies. Sometimes you'll find a book asleep at the wheel for an obscure NCAAF first half total when all the books have it at 24.5 and you'll see someone hanging a 23.5. Hit the over 23.5 and you'll have a significant advantage over the market.

Whenever I'm on a bad streak, I return to this idea until I get some things worked out.

great insight......

:toast: